Commentary, Photography

If You Want Peace …

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This opinion piece originally appeared in The Globe and Mail. I believe it’s an incredibly germane article that should be read and considered by all Canadians, especially before we go to the polls on April 28. There are eleven important links throughout the piece; I hope you have the time to go through them.

If You Want Peace, Prepare for War – an Ancient Lesson Canada Must Remember
   
THOMAS HOMER-DIXON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published March 21, 2025

Thomas Homer-Dixon is executive director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University and professor emeritus at the University of Waterloo.

Photo illustration: The Globe and Mail

Si vis pacem, para bellum.
If you want peace, prepare a for war. This ancient Roman aphorism is starkly relevant to Canada’s situation today, no matter how contrary it seems to our national culture.

U.S. President Donald Trump believes that the treaty that demarcates the Canada-U.S. border is invalid and that the boundary should be moved. Put simply, he wants to take our land. And the risk of that happening is higher if we pretend it doesn’t exist.

There are people who want to believe that Mr. Trump’s annexation talk is just a tactic to get us to make bigger trade concessions. The tariffs aren’t intended to make annexation easier, they say, but are instead part of a strategy to restructure the U.S. economy, reduce the country’s deficit and lower taxes.

Similarly, until a couple of weeks ago, any suggestion that the United States would use military force against Canada was derided as ridiculous. And anyway, commentators argued, Canada can’t be militarily defended, because our population is strung out in a thin line along America’s northern border.


But those perspectives are shifting fast.


Earlier this week, the renowned Yale historian Timothy Snyder (and visiting professor at the University of Toronto) wrote that “war with Canada is what Trump seems to have in mind.” He highlighted Mr. Trump’s “strangely Putinist” fiction that Canada isn’t real – that we’re not economically viable, that most of us want to join the U.S., and that the border is artificial. The assertion that Canada isn’t real is the kind of lie, Dr. Snyder said, that “imperialists tell themselves before beginning doomed wars of aggression.” It’s preparation “not just for trade war but for war itself.”


Other scholars are now seriously addressing the possibility of war. Aisha Ahmad, a Canadian specialist in failed states, recently argued that an invasion of Canada would “trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.” And last week the military historian Elliot Cohen published an assessment of past U.S. attempts to conquer Canada, with a reminder to the Trump administration that they produced “dismal results.”


You’re likely shaking your head by now. This can’t be possible! But Mr. Trump’s modus operandi is to turn craziness into reality. We need to stop shaking our heads at his craziness and see the new reality he’s creating.

Mr. Trump isn’t just “a quasi-fascist,” said Jonathan Leader Maynard of King’s College University in London in a message to me a few days ago, “but an absolute fantasist who treats things as true because he fantasizes about them. Canada as the 51st state, Gaza as a hotel resort, tariffs making the economy boom, splitting Russia off from China – all these ideas are fantasies. But given free rein, he might pursue any or all of them.”


If one observes Mr. Trump carefully, one can see his tell – an unintended hint of his subconscious fantasy about geopolitics. It’s there in the school-room map on a stand beside his desk in the Oval Office, emblazoned with “Gulf of America.” And it’s there again in his comments on March 13, when he talked about the “beautiful formation of Canada and the United States.”


“It would be one of the great states anywhere,” he said. “This would be the most incredible country visually.”


Mr. Trump is playing the board game Risk, and the main players are the U.S., Russia and China. A nation’s power equates to its visible expanse of territory across a cartoon-like world map. All countries are ineluctably locked into a planet-spanning winner-take-all conflict. And to prevail, the United States needs to absorb Canada (and to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal) not just to Make America Great, but to achieve “hemispheric control,” in Steve Bannon’s eager locution.


Mr. Trump’s board-game imaginings may be fantastic, but they’re creating, day by day, a stark, hard reality: The rules-based international order that originated with the 17th century jurist and philosopher Hugo Grotius – and on which the principle of territorial sovereignty is based – is unravelling. Emerging in its place is something akin to Thomas Hobbes’ state of nature – a world governed by brute force and the will of the strongest.

The unravelling process will take time. An assault on Canadian territory won’t happen soon, not this year, nor likely the next. But if we choose to remain weak, here’s how things could go before the end of Mr. Trump’s term, especially if domestic unrest and dysfunction further radicalize his regime, encouraging it to try to distract attention by picking fights with outsiders.


Mr. Trump will steadily escalate his demands on Canada, tying them to progressively broader political and territorial grievances. He’ll also increasingly question our country’s basic legitimacy as a sovereign nation, as he’s already started to do. A flood of lies from his associates, cabinet members, and the MAGA-verse will paint us as, at best, an irresponsible neighbour that’s not protecting America’s northern flank, or, at worst, an outright security threat, because at any moment we can restrict access to the energy, potash, water and other critical resources the United States needs.


Once we’re framed as an enemy, intelligence and military co-operation (for instance, under NORAD) will end. And at that point – with the U.S. military’s senior ranks purged of resistance and Trump loyalists in place – demands for territorial concessions, explicitly backed by the threat of military force, will be a simple next step. They’ll likely start with something small – an adjustment to the border in the Great Lakes, for instance – as a test of our will. But they won’t end there.


What’s the probability of this kind of scenario? Ten per cent, 5 per cent, or 1 per cent? No one can say for sure. But it’s certainly not zero. And given the existential cost to Canada, we’d be stupid not to take it seriously. In game-theory terms, we need to pursue a strategy of “minimax regret” – to minimize, as best we can, the possibility of worst-case outcomes.

This means, first, recognizing that channelling Neville Chamberlain won’t work. Mr. Trump knows what he wants – our territory – and he’s out to get it. There’s no happy middle ground that can be reached through appeasement. He’ll take our concessions and demand more.

And it means, second, that we need to move to a wartime footing in all respects – economically, socially, politically and (perhaps hardest for us to accept) militarily.


The doubters who say Canada can’t be defended are wrong. Canada can indeed prepare effectively to resist U.S. military force. Scandinavian countries have developed elaborate and popular plans for homeland defence against a massive external threat. We can do the same, starting now by standing up a national civil defence corp, a capacity that would also equip us to better deal with all disasters, natural and human caused.


Already, Canadians in every walk of life are discussing privately how they’re prepared to protect our homeland. True, in any violent contest between Canada and the U.S., we can’t possibly win in a conventional sense. But we can ensure in advance that an authoritarian, imperialist U.S. regime knows the cost will be high enough to make it far less likely to attack in the first place.


The stronger we are, the lower the risks. Si vis pacem, para bellum.

35 thoughts on “If You Want Peace …”

    1. I agree, Leanne. I’ve actually dreamt about it a couple of times! He’s very unstable (with such a gang of incompetents in his government, too) so I’m hoping that it will all fall apart. Question is how much damage he will do first.

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  4. Yup, Putin, Trump and Xi have entered the era of continental geopolitics. We are America’s Ukraine. Trump is America’s Putin. The fact that we went with Aus for an over the horizon radar system up North is a start. The next step is to immediately get to 3% of GDP military spending. The fact that America can withhold important flight and armament data from the F35 fighter and that we must get all servicing done by them in their country is also a tell. We need to get an alternate fighter and an alternate plan. We can’t depend on America when we must defend from America. This is eerily akin to Gilead. Thanks for sharing this article Lynette. Allan

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    1. You’re welcome, Allan. I agree with everything you say here. Getting our defences up and running is paramount. Once Ukraine is “settled,” we’re next and need to be as prepared as possible.

      The F35 fighter contract is a sticky wicket because the U.S. is supplying aircraft components to most European builders and these components can be withheld if we chose to buy fighters from one of those companies. Then there’s the issue that Canadian taxpayers have heavily invested in the development of the F35 variant that includes vertical takeoff and stealth capabilities. We’ll never get that back and now have to consider buying the Eurofighter (has few U.S. components) which isn’t as advanced. Oy.

      Agreed. Gilead.

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  7. The First amendment does not apply to foreigners.

    So I would not go into the States If I were you Lynette. Just this kind of post is enough for them to arrest and hold you.

    A French scientist just got deported. He simply disagreed with Trump’s policies. They took his cell phone and searched his social media.

    Elbows and heads up!

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    1. Hi Wayne, yes, I read about that. Homeland Security is claiming that he stole classified information from an American lab and was not deported because of his views on Trump and Musk. The lies and falsehoods coming out of these people is unbelievable. It’s amazing how fast a democracy can be turned into a fascist dictatorship. Ugh.

      I have zero plans to visit the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Any Canadians still there need to leave (unless they’ve already drunk the Trump koolaid) and also should as much as possible be avoiding it. American friends and relatives need to come visit here.

      Agreed – heads and elbows up! Vive le Canada. 🇨🇦

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      1. If you so much as look sideways while down there you could be lost in the chaos for weeks or months!
        I always was nervous entering in to the States as I feared getting sucked up into the machine.

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        1. Agreed. Both M and I have been wary of going there for the last 10 years – since Trump took over the first time, but yes, I always felt that law enforcement including border control were rather more like some kind of armed soldiers. The attitude from them could be alarming, too. Very threatening at times.

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    1. They sure are, aren’t they? I’m convinced that Trump is serious and as soon as this election is over (with a Carney win, I hope) we need to get going on our defence preparations and further disengagement from as many U.S. ties as possible.

      And now we have Chamberlain Smith in Alberta trying to play diplomat. She needs to mind her business and deal with the health care crisis that she has in her own back yard. And she needs to be called on that whole unity crisis she keeps threatening. Ugh.

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  9. There was an article in the CBC yesterday about how issues of sovereignty and national defence are typically glossed over in federal elections, but are likely to dominate the discussion during this election. You’re right, we may not win a war in the conventional sense, but we can put up one hell of a fight. Elbows up.

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    1. The U.S. has a long history (since WW II) of doing poorly – despite how well equipped they are – as an invading force and since the Canadian military has worked with them for many years, we know their tactics. That also means that we need to stop working with them and to change ours as soon as possible. And yes, we need to spend a lot more money on national defense, especially in the Arctic. As individual Canadians, we also should look at how we can defend ourselves (I’m former combat military and tend to think that way). Agreed, we might not win, but we can make it very, very expensive for them. Elbows up. Vive le Canada. 🇨🇦

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  10. This is horribly bleak and I wish it was unbelievable, but Trump has given off so many red flags already. Whether it is dictators or common criminals, bad behaviour tends to escalate until someone steps in or the offender hits a solid wall. Appeasement simply doesn’t work.

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    1. Many academics, pundits, and think tanks are publishing concerns that are very similar to those expressed in this piece. A few Canadians are still in denial and there’s a small minority (somewhere around 5-6%) here who are Trump supporters, but the vast majority of us are beginning to think along defensive – not just economic – lines. With Trump continuing his threats about the border and about how we’re not a “real country,” that thinking will start to coalesce. Agreed, appeasement is definitely not the way; nowhere in history has that ever worked. We have to stand up to him and with Greenland and Panama, as well.

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      1. As an aside, as you know, in Britain our Sites of Scientific Interest are the gold standard for nature protection and damaging them is normally considered a serious matter. Well, a few years ago Trump destroyed a SSSI in Scotland with a golf course. He said “preserving the sanctity and beauty of the dunes is of great importance to me” (!) The site was wrecked so badly it actually lost its SSSI status, which is almost unheard of.

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        1. That sounds like Trump. He’s a champion of war victims, orphans, the environment and animals. Sure. To listen to him, he’s the second coming and no doubt in that cesspool he has for a brain, likely believes his own propaganda. He’s completely appalling and should be in prison. It’s outrageous that Scotland has to put up with another “visit” from him where he’ll no doubt golf at the course where he’s been so good about honouring his commitment to preserve the dunes. Ugh.

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  11. It’s true, it’s real, and it is happening. I am sick with rage, and hoping that we collectively (Danielle Smith take note) rise to this challenge instead of sinking into appeasement. The 1930s show us the truth: to appease a bully is to feed a bully. Time for the rest of the western-liberal-democratic world to rise to the challenge as well, and recognize Canada as their own front line of defence.

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    1. Agreed, Penny. We still have some deniers among us – most notably the NB premier springs to mind – but I think the vast majority of Canadians are fully aware of the danger.

      I’ve referred to Danielle Smith before as a quisling, and more than ever I think the shoe fits. M calls her Chamberlain Smith. She needs to be called out on her national unity threats, too. What a piece of work, and of course she drags Moe in Saskatchewan with her wherever she goes. He wouldn’t be able to think for himself if his life depended on it.

      Yes, world history shows time and again that appeasement never works. I agree totally that we are the front line and need to start standing with Greenland (and Panama, too). Greenlanders in particular have begun asking for support. Of course we have to get through this election before we can start definitively dealing with that dark hole to the south of us.

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      1. Quisling is an apt description, exactly right – though I wonder how many people today know the word and its origins. (Look it up, folks…) Time to dust off the War Measures Act.

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        1. She’s apparently now heading back to the U.S. to speak at a right-wing fundraiser on Thursday with conservative knobhead Canadians-should-be-sent-to-work-the-Panama-Canal Ben Shapiro. It’s being framed as a “patriotic act of courage” by her office. A good quisling always pretends to be a patriot. Perhaps we should start thinking about enacting legislation ensuring that premiers who consort with the enemy are summarily dismissed from office.

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